The Short Sale Doctors

A Second Mortgage Meltdown?

Posted by Andrew Syrios in SwiftEconomics.com

As we all know, the recession is over. Joe Biden told us so. Ben Bernanke said the same. Obama’s chief economic officer Lawrence Summers even said “everybody agrees that the recession is over.” (1) Honestly, how could anyone disagree? After all, the Dow Jones is up almost 50% over the last year and we only lost 36,000 jobs last quarter, which is apparently great.

So we’ve had a jobless recovery because our economy grew 2.2% last quarter. Unfortunately, as Anthony Randazzo points out in Reason Magazine, most of that “growth” is based on temporary government programs:

“Consider that 37 percent of the third-quarter GDP growth was due to motor vehicle purchases, which were stimulated almost entirely by the Cash for Clunkers program… Another 20 percent of third-quarter GDP growth came from new residential investments, propped up largely by the First-Time Homebuyer Credit… Overall, government support accounts for roughly 77 percent of economic growth in the third quarter of 2009, according to my analysis of Commerce Department statistics. This means that non-Washington GDP growth was closer to 0.34 percent from July to September 2009, instead of 2.2 percent.” (2)

He concludes, “This is not real growth. It’s the national equivalent of a credit-card buying spree, with the bills—in the form of debt service and unfunded liabilities—to be paid off later. It is a faux recovery.”

Housing Double Dip a Done Deal

CNBC Real Estate Reporter

Everybody taSold signke a nice long look at today’s Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors, because it’s just about the last positive picture we’re going to see for a while.

Yes, the index rose even more than expected, as buyers rushed in to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit.

And yes, those numbers will show up in Existing Home Sales in May and June, but then look out.